Thursday, 16 April 2015

#GE2015 impact on housing


So not too long ago the Government announced a number of infrastructure schemes to support the North of England, the Transport for the North (TfN) schemes. The aim was to provide increased capacity in the North and further support the devolution aim. The main exciting scheme would be “HS3” a new high speed rail between Leeds and Manchester. I do wonder why not Hull to Liverpool with a connection to Sheffield though. Will cost more but will truly connect the North.

The schemes ranged from rail investment to even creating a tunnel under the Peak District. Now all these schemes are just bits of paper at the moment however one thing that is for sure is the delivery of any will support jobs in the North and also provide increased connectivity to really drive investment in the region – certainly a positive step for those seeking to attract more businesses to the North. And more businesses means more homes for them. It’s all a perfect circle for the industry if it is delivered. It would be good to have all parties commit to supporting this going forward to really make some change in the North.

The potential swinging vote for House builders is the impact of the coalition on their share price. They have massively outperformed their contractor rivals on the London stock exchange over the course of this parliament, seeing on average 238% share price growth. Don’t you just wish you’d made an investment 5 years ago! Certainly Help to Buy was a driver behind this and no doubt some of the wider policies. Also though don’t forget they took the hit 2008/9 with large scale write downs. It does skew the numbers somewhat when showing large scale profits.

All this made me wonder what policies are out there as part of the General Election 2015 campaign:

Conservatives

The Conservatives say that the Help to Buy scheme has worked and the introduction of the Help to Buy ISA furthers this scheme. Largely I agree it has been a welcome move providing more access for first time buyers – it still does not fully address the issue. The manifesto for the 2015 election builds on this by extending the scheme to 2020 and committing to building 200,000 at a 20% discount. Clearly the focus is about getting people housing but my only thought would be does this fully address the increase in house prices which even with Help to Buy is pricing people out of the market.

Labour

It gets a little similar now as yet another commitment to 200,000 homes per year. Labour are also seeking to find funding for first time buyers and cap rent increases in long term tenancy agreements. It was also interesting to hear Shadow transport secretary Michael Dugher comment that Labour has a better plan for the North around devolution. Look forward to reading about this more (didn’t jump out at me in the Manifesto). What did prick my ears was the creation of a £5 billion fund to build homes that the community need. Practice will show if this is actually what it delivers (if they get in power). How does Labour plan to convince the banks to use Help to Buy ISA funds in this way, I know what my response would be.

So “lose it or use it” for large developers, hmmm I don’t think they hold land solely for it to go up in value and I’m aware that some simply get stuck in the planning process - they want to build. This will need careful consideration before any implementation.

Liberal Democrats

Over the past year there has been talk of the new “Garden Cities” and yes it is a policy now, with at least 10 planned. Sounds such a nice idea – a garden city, a city surrounded by green belt but there needs to be care and planning to ensure cities/towns are appropriately considered, provide sufficient resource and infrastructure and maybe think North not just South. They also go one further and commit to 300,000 homes a year, well where to start (a) the country builds nowhere near that, (b) massive planning reform would be needed to allow approval for all this and (c) where is it going to be? My local town has hundreds of houses planned – each one has been opposed by locals.

In conclusion

I’m undecided. Each has policies which appeal but each in turn needs to really think about implementation. They all address the need to build more houses but I feel they all lack the clarity on how this will be achieved. I look forward to the knock on my door so I can ask for the detail.

Feel free to contact me 0113 288 2276 or lee.a.wilkinson@uk.pwc.com if you wish to discuss this blog or anything relevant to property and construction.

Enjoy the weekend



Lee

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